We know that there is such a thing called the Begin doctrine, in which Israel has acted at least twice to prevent an Arab state from acquiring a nuclear weapon capability. It has a very strong military and a strong economy. The only thing on the table is a very seriously flawed American administration initiative which has gained no support anywhere in the world except in the state of Israel.įor the Arab states that have either begun to normalize with Israel or are thinking about it, Israel is a powerful and valuable ally. No one has formally withdrawn from it, but an initiative that was quite interesting and profound back in 2002 and reiterated several times since by Arab summits is now on the sidelines. The Arab Peace Initiative is also dying a slow death. The event was co-hosted by the Woodrow Wilson Center International Center for Scholars and the U.S. When Palestinians are asked: 'Why don't they come up with their own peace initiative?' The answer is: 'How could we do so under occupation?' - which suggests that there is an absence of policy planning within the Palestinian community. Unfortunately, they're not a factor in the current dynamics in the Arab-Israeli or larger Middle East context. They have not had a serious election now for about 15 years.

They clearly have been left out of all recent moves - not just the Bahrain and Emirates decisions but also left out of the peace process by the Trump administration for the last three-and-a-half years. We're beginning to see a bit of competition from Egypt and Jordan that are a bit jealous of the rise of the Gulf states and the importance attributed to Gulf state activities. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Egypt are largely aligned against Turkey and Qatar in a number of regional conflicts. What this reflects is the change in the balance of power within the region. It's hard to oppose the idea of normalization between Israel and an Arab country. In the case of both Bahrain and the Emirates, there was also a payoff to President Trump, an investment in the possibility of his being reelected but also with no serious downside should Joe Biden be elected. For Bahrain, the importance of having an American naval facility was important to their agenda, as well as the pressure that Bahrain remains under from across the Gulf in Iran. withdrawal from the region, and in the case of the UAE, the ability to pocket some immediate gains-first of all, suspending Israel's move toward annexing parts of the West Bank and likely receiving F-35s from the United States. They were born of frustration with Obama's perceived courtship of Iran, concerns about the U.S. The UAE and Bahrain decisions were long in the making. What that has meant for the Arab actors and Israel is a very shifting and elusive balance of power. The state system in the Middle East has ceased to play a very significant role. Arab states have come into some of those wars, but they have been with the PLO, Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. One example: Since 1973, Israel has fought any number of wars with Arab actors, but not one of them has been primarily with an Arab state. The rise of non-state actors has become far more important in many respects than the actions of state actors. What happens in Turkey, Iran and Israel - as opposed to what happens in the Arab world - has become much more important. The context in the Middle East is one of very serious challenges in which states on the periphery of the Arab world have begun to dominate. Population growth leads to the possibility that young people can't get jobs, food insecurity, economic inequality and corruption. It's a place where state failure, weakness of regimes, governance crises and endemic problems that seem impervious to solutions abound.

His topic this morning is the Arab-Israeli peace process-what's next? What countries are next? What difference will the Abraham Accords make in either the peace process or changing the balance of power in the Middle East? And what about the Palestinians? Have they totally been left behind?ĭan Kurtzer: The Palestinian-Israeli conflict takes place in a region which is largely dysfunctional. Today, he is a distinguished professor at Princeton. He has also served as part of the peace process team. He has served both Democratic and Republican presidents. He was there in 1981 when President Anwar Sadat was assassinated. His first posting was as a young Political Officer in Cairo. He was the ambassador to both Israel and Egypt. Robin Wright: We're going to begin with Ambassador Dan Kurtzer who has been one of America's most distinguished diplomats.

Map of middle east before israel